BBC forecast for Met Office: changeable

BUFFETED by complaints about its inaccurate weather forecasts, the Met Office now faces being dumped by the BBC after almost 90 years.
The Met Office contract with the BBC expires in April and the broadcaster has begun talks with Metra, the national forecaster for New Zealand, as a possible alternative.
The BBC put the contract out to tender to ensure “best value for money”, but its timing coincides with a storm over the Met Office’s accuracy.
Last July the state-owned forecaster’s predictions for a “barbecue summer” turned into a washout. And its forecast for a mild winter attracted derision when temperatures recently plunged as low as -22C.

Last week the Met Office failed to predict heavy snowfall in the southeast that brought traffic to a standstill. This weekend a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times reveals that 74% of people believe its forecasts are generally inaccurate.
By contrast, many commercial rivals got their predictions for winter right. They benefit from weather forecasts produced by a panel of six different data providers, including the Met Office.
Despite criticism, staff at the Met Office are still in line to share a bonus pot of more than £1m. Seasonal forecasts, such as the one made in September, are not included in its performance targets.
John Hirst, the chief executive of the Met Office, has been reported as saying that recent forecasts had been very good and as blaming the public for not heeding snow warnings. He received a bonus of almost £40,000 in 2008-09.
Metra already produces graphics for the BBC, including the 3-D weather map that made some viewers feel sick when it was introduced in 2005. Weather Commerce, Metra’s UK subsidiary, has already usurped the Met Office in supplying forecasts to Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer and Waitrose.
Metra has been negotiating with the BBC since September, when a new tender document, seen by The Sunday Times, was sent to forecasters. It stated that the corporation was seeking a single forecaster to provide meteorological data and presenters for five years.
Only companies with a turnover of more than £10m have been invited to apply. The Met Office is still likely to be a strong contender.
A source close to Metra said: “The BBC is not happy with the service it has been getting from the Met Office; it thinks it’s too expensive. We have the ability to provide a bespoke service that will undercut it. Because we already produce the graphics we’ve got a foot in the door, so we’re optimistic.”
During its time on the BBC the Met Office has produced a series of unlikely stars, including John Kettley and Michael Fish, as established meteorologists were thrust before cameras.
Many commercial rivals have been put off bidding by the requirement to provide presenters. A source at one rival said: “Where are we going to find 20 weather presenters? It’s a huge burden. The Met Office has an unfair advantage.”
A BBC spokesman said: “It is common practice to look at the options available when a contract is about to expire to ensure we get the best value for money for our licence fee payers.”
The Met Office was bullish, though, saying: “We have always been in the strongest position to provide the BBC with accurate and detailed weather forecasts and warnings for the UK.”


From:- The Timesonline

By:-  Steven Swinford


http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/tv_and_radio/a...

Fair weather friends

Long term forecasting is a science in its infancy. The BBC should stick with Met Office expertise


It's open season, it seems, on the Met Office. The BBC is reported to be weighing up its contract with the state-owned forecaster, and considering a new deal with an alternative company, which would sever a 90-year link with the broadcaster. In my many years working for the Met Office and appearing on BBC programmes, I and my colleagues saw little of the wrangling behind the scenes, but renegotiation of contracts happened on at least two occasions. The BBC would be foolish not to assess the way its money is being spent. They are not alone in needing to find ways to save pennies. But the weather is slightly different to any old contract – this is a vital service, upon which millions of pounds, and human lives, depend.

To my mind the Met Office is the most experienced and thorough forecaster in the world, home to the best and brightest brains in the business. Twenty four hours a day, 365 days a year, the Met Office delivers its information to Britain through the national broadcaster.

Forecasters for the BBC need to have two distinct but crucial parts. First, they must be fully qualified meteorologists. They need to be proficient in understanding and interpreting the data provided, to be able to adjust ­interpretations at a moment's notice. Second, and just as essential, they need to be able to communicate that information to the audience. This is tougher than it might seem: it means translating specialist data and language into accessible terms; it often means thinking on one's feet; and it demands a personality that people trust. It is no easy marriage of skills and the BBC is well served by a uniquely talented team.

The fog hovering over the Met Office has been deepened by press speculation that it has flunked its latest long-term forecasts. The talk of a "barbecue summer" and a "mild winter", it is insinuated, lay bare the Met Office's shortcomings. It is wrong to use long-term forecasts as a stick with which to beat the organisation. Predicting the weather for days ahead is a very different task to predicting an entire season. One is meteorology; the other is climatology. Producing forecasts for even one or two months ahead is a discipline in its infancy – and in my experience the Met Office has been reluctant to make public its long-term forecasts. The pressure to do so comes in large part from the very same parts of the media that now seek to discredit it, and the same parts of the media that so often exaggerate – or misrepresent – the information the Met Office provides.

Several years ago when I was still at the Met Office, I remember we produced a forecast for that December, pointing to a mild month of wet patches, with colder spells. Parts of the press managed to extrapolate that information into headlines that predicted a white Christmas. It bore almost no relation to the facts.

The Met Office, of course, should not be immune to criticism. But those who condemn it for wrongly predicting a "barbecue summer" would do well to revisit the data – measured over the three-month period, it was not the miserable summer that some imagine. And the mild winter? Well, it's not over yet. Let's wait until March, and measure the averages then, before we take the Met Office to task. My forecast? We're about to enter a period of mild weather.



Source:-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/18/fair-weather-friends-met-off...